Outlook

How this outlook works

Forecast only, next 72 hours. Computed in your browser each time the page opens, when you return to it, and every 10 minutes. Rule-based scoring, no AI service. Every number is labelled with its source; anything missing shows "not enough data".

Weather: Open-Meteo hourly snowfall, temperature, wind gust (best-match blend plus GEM, GFS, ECMWF for model agreement); Environment Canada GeoMet HRDPS 3-h snowfall at the town; Environment Canada weather alerts.
Roads (CMA 517 and CMA 518, each town's own area): 511 Alberta live conditions (via relay), Open-Meteo forecast snowfall at each segment's midpoint, past snow-event road history and Emcon deployments from the snow events recorder.

Road attention score = forecast snowfall at the segment over the window (cm, Open-Meteo; 72 h for the table, 24 h per day on the map) + 2 if 511 currently not bare (72 h and day 1 only) + 0.5 × past times the segment went non-bare in recorded events. Tables list roads scoring above 0. "When" = first forecast hour with snowfall ≥ 0.1 cm at the segment.

Confidence (per day): checks are model agreement for that day (spread ≤ 1 cm, or all none), HRDPS within 2 cm of Open-Meteo, and 3+ recorded events. HRDPS reaches only 48 h, so day 3 always fails the HRDPS check (shown "not available"), which lowers confidence with lead time. High = all pass; medium = one fails; low = two or more fail, or models disagree by more than 3 cm. The road confidence uses the weakest day and is capped at medium with fewer than 3 events.